Bookie Chat
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Chat with the Vegas Insider Handicappers at 3:30pm EST
Q: San Diego For baseball, do you think the cubs and tigers will win today? R: briane Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen! The dog days of summer are almost over as plenty of football news is out there to discuss. In addition, most books have posted college football season win totals and Games of the Year. Sportsbook.com has these numbers available to bet now and I'm ready to talk about them and provide some suggestions. There's also a huge MLB card tonight. Let's get it going! San Diego: The Tigers lead 4-1 in the seventh so they're looking good. On the other hand, the Cubs currently trail the Reds by a 3-2 count in the third. Q: John (Austin) Brian -- what season win totals are looking good to you? What do you think about Texas over 10.5? R: briane John: I have two I'm definitely on but the one that I'm on heavily and suggesting to anyone who will listen is Notre Dame 'under' 8 1/2 for a plus-145 payout (per current number at Sportsbook.com). The Irish have a soft schedule, but they aren't winning nine games. After going through their schedule, I have Notre Dame at 7-4 with a game at Michigan as the swing game that can go either way. But regardless, a win in that spot still allows 'under' backers to cash tickets. I have Jimmy Clausen and Co. losing home games to USC and a Michigan St. program on the rise under Mark Dantonio. The Irish will also lose at Pitt and at Stanford. As I mentioned, a loss at Michigan is also possible and don't be shocked if Kolin Kapernick and the Nevade Wolf Pack give ND fits in the season opener. Another total I like is Alabama 'over' 9 1/2 wins (we also get 'plus' money here in the form of a plus-115 return at Sportsbook.com). I have the Tide finishing 11-1 with its only loss at Ole Miss. Yes, the QB position is a question mark, but it's not as if John Parker Wilson was the second coming of Joe Willie Namath. The 2009 Alabama team will be all about defense, running the football and the brilliant coaching of Nick Saban. The 'D' was one of the best in the country last season and returns nine starters. The offense has a stable of running backs and perhaps the best wide receiver in the nation in sophomore Julio Jones. 'Bama gets its toughest SEC games (besides Ole Miss) at home -- vs. LSU, vs. Arkansas, vs. Tennessee and vs. South Carolina. Another possible hiccup is vs. Va. Tech at the Georgia Dome in Week 1, but the Tide will have a decided homefield advantage in terms of crowd noise since the game is in nearby Atlanta, where 'Bama has a huge alumni base. As for Texas, I have the 'Horns going 11-1 with their only loss coming at Oklahoma State. So if I had to wager on the Texas total, I'd go 'over' 10 1/2 (+130 odds) but I'm not inclined to do so because an injuy to Colt McCoy probably makes this bet a loser. And obviously, a loss against Oklahoma is a possibility. Q: Will in D.C. Brian, I know you like to fade the nats everyday, btu u also like going against the Padres on the road, righgt? So what gives tonight? R: briane Great question, Will. And I sure was annoyed when I saw my two favorite fade teams matched up against one another. You're right, when the price is right I auto-fade the Nats basically on a daily basis. And I'm always fading the Padres on the road like I did last night with the Phillies run line for an easy winner. I think I'm passing on Nats-Padres tonight. Looks like a toss-up (and a good price) to me. Here's one play I like tonight: Boston on the run line for about a plus-140 comeback. Yes, the Red Sox are struggling mightily but that's been on the road. They get back at home tonight and will be focused against a Baltimore team that's a pathetic 15-32 on the road. Meanwhile, Terry Francona's squad is 31-14 at home in Fenway Park. Since getting shelled in his first home start this year, Brady Penny is 4-1 with a 3.28 ERA at Fenway. Go the run-line route on the BoSox. Q: Brent (S. Fla.) under for Dodgers-Fish with studs Johnson and Kershaw throwing? R: briane Yeah, that looks like a good call. Two of the best young arms in baseball. I have a few notes on this game in my Late-Night Tip Sheet if you want to check it out. Also, here's the link for my pick pack. Q: Tony T-Vols Brian, youre Gators getting scared of my Vols yet? UT is on the way back! Do you have Tennessee Game of hte Year numbers? R: briane Tony T-Bags: You Vols make me laugh and feel good on the inside. Scared? Scared we might hang 100 on you at The Swamp. Yes, I'm scared of that for you. The number is 24 and my alma mater will have that covered at halftime easily. Other UT numbers:
UT's season win total is 7 'under' (-145) which means you can back 'over' 7 wins for a plus-115 payout (risk $100 to win $115). I have the Vols starting 4-1 but then collapsing down the stretch as they get to the meat of their schedule. UT will take a 6-5 record and 24-game head-to-head winning streak over Kentucky when it comes to Lexington for the regular-season finale. I have UK snapping the two-decade-and-change losing streak for both teams to finish 6-6. It looks like a trip to Memphis or Nashville for the Vols for the Liberty or Music City Bowl.
And like I said on the Power Hours yesterday, I think Tennessee is going to regret not making Cincinnati's Brian Kelly its top target rather than Lane Kiffin. We'll see in 2-3 years. Q: Charlie Encinitas if you could pick any 6 game parlay on teams whether it be over-under, runline, ml, etc. what would be your best oicks for todays games R: briane 6-gamer, huh? Might I suggest you trim it down to a 3-4 teamer? If you have 2 plays at 'plus' money you can get the value you're looking for in a easier-to-hit 3 or 4-teamer. Maybe give this a shot: Red Sox run line (+140ish)
That 3-teamer at excellent 'plus' odds should garner a monster return if it hits. Q: Terrence (Chi-Town) Brian, give me one guaranteed winner on a Game of the Year that I can go bet RIGHT NOW at Sportsbook.com -- hook me up please!!! R: briane Terrence: You got it, buddy (my pleasure!). Go hammer with confidence a play on USC -3 at Ohio St. During Jim Tressel's tenure, the Bucks have only hosted one big-time non-conference team and that was Texas in 2005, when Vince Young led the 'Horns to a comeback win at The 'Shoe. USC is notorious for dealing out pimpslaps when it comes East. Remember the Trojans hanging a 52-spot at Virginia last year? Going back even further, USC bagled Auburn 23-0 the year the Tigers had Jason Campbell at QB and RBs named Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams AND Brandon Jacobs. The Trojans put a 50-spot up at Arkansas in '06 and they trashed Nebraska in Lincoln in '07. USC -3 is GOLD! Q: Billy (Atlanta) Braves bounce back tonight? THey're playing well and in the wild-card hunt? R: briane Billy: Glad you asked, my pay-if-it-wins-only GUARANTEE for tonight is a play on the Braves-Brewers. Please check it out for an easy winner! Allright, folks. I enjoyed it as always and I hope you did as well. I'll have an MLB Tip Sheet for Saturday's Fox games up in the next hour or so if you want to check it out. I also have a few SEC tidbits from Media Days in this latest blog (more links to be added in next hour or so). Good luck w/ all your wagers! Over and out... |
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