Bookie Chat
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Monday Night Football Chat at 5:30pm EST
Q: Don Coleman Good afternoon from Kansas City. I have leans on Bills to cover tonight as 90% side betting action is on the home team. How do you see this game please? R: chrisd Good evening folks and welcome to the MNF Chat, let's keep the questions rolling and try to kick out winners! Hi Don Hard to side with the Bills on paper, but that's why they play the games. The favorites are 11-3 SU and 7-6-1 ATS through the first 14 games. Will the streak continue? The betting public at Sportsbook and across the country believe so.... Q: Jim (Portland) hi chris.... do you know if richard seymour is going to be in action tonight? if you had to pick the winnner for sd-oakland game who would you pick? take care and best of luck. R: chrisd Hi Jim Reports out of Oakland have said that Seymour will start and he should only help a defense that was the strength of the team last year. Q: Tony Overheard that bettors crushed the books on the opening weekend of the NFL. Is that true Chris? I expect that trend to continue tonight with Buffalo (underdog) and San Diego (favorite) to cash again. Do you see that? R: chrisd Hi Tony Anytime you see the favorites go 10-4 straight up, it definately doesn't help the books. I've always been told that the key to a books balance sheet is teasers and parlays. Even when the favorite didn't cover, most of them did hit teasers. The only losers were Bengals (they did hit 10-pt teasers) and Cardinals that I can think of... But the key favorites that the public pounded were the Vikings, Cowboys, Eagles, Saints and Seahawks and all of them were pretty easy winners too. Q: Luis What's up CD? I like the Over in San Diego - Oakland game as well as the Under Buffalo-NE game Thoughts? R: chrisd Mr. Luis The under has been the trend in the Chargers-Raiders series up until the last three meetings and last year, the 'over' was lucky to cash in the game played in Oakland. Actually, SD (28-18) was fortunate to cover too but LT ripped one off late for the front-door cover. It was a really bad beat for gamblers on the Raiders. That alone makes me lean a little to Oakland at home tonight because the Raiders know they can play with them, at least in the Black Hole. Q: Gasan Do Raiders have a chance to win tonight in your opinion? Lot of folks are on the San Diego Chargers. Talk later CD. R: chrisd Hi Gasan Win, I don't want to say yes especially with J-Russell behind center...but a cover is definately possible. Eight of the first 14 games have been decided by double-digits so a win by more than 10 is doable but I'm a little leary tonight. Q: Josh (Arizona) Hi Chris. Are there any trends worth discussing tonight at all? I currently have small lean on New England at home tonight so I am hoping to hear your opinion on this game. Later buddy! R: chrisd Hi Josh One total trend that I found in the Buffalo-New England series is this... The under went 2-0 in 2006 The over went 2-0 in 2007 The under went 2-0 in 2008 The over goes 2-0 in 2009??????? If you're into trends, then you go 'over' right? Q: Jeff (Vegas) Are Chargers the sucker bet tonight? Being double digits fav on the road in a MNF divisional game and receiving 90% of the action? the likely scenario would be a late TD cover from the raiders. Thoughts? R: chrisd Hi Jeff If you go to Sportsbook.com or VegasInsider.com and analyze the betting trends, this is how you can make money. Not every game is a winner but follow along with me please by looking at the VI Mega Board (It's on our home page).... Look at the Open and Current Lines...after finding a move, whether on the side or total, then look at the trend and decipher whether it was Public Money or Sharp Money. For instance, tonight. New England has gone from 10.5 to 13 and the Betting Trends have 90% on Pats. Same thing with Chargers from 9 to 10, and 90% on Bolts. However, look at the totals...public is on the over in the NE/BUF game...steady line. The Chargers-Bolts line went from 43 to 42.5 (just a half-point but still a move), yet the amount of bets is on the OVER... What that tells me is that the real or sharp money is on the under...why push the line down when you have more bets on the over? The sharp play tonight is the Under in SD/OAK.... Q: Teaser man Hi, are you on teaser? Buffalo +18.5 and San Diego -3.... how easy can that get? Take care R: chrisd If I was going to do the Teaser tonight, I'd shoot with this...but keep in mind I lost a teaser y-day with Colts-Jags Over 36...just a bad game. For tonight, try this...we'll go 9-point (+100) ties lose...why not... Pats -3.5 Over Pats-Bills 38.5 Raiders +19.5 Q: Randall; Mississippi Hey how do you feel about patriots covering the big spread and finaly going over this game serious. What you think? R: chrisd Hi Randall The favorite/over combination hit four times on Sunday with Saints, Eagles, Vikings and Cowboys...those really hurt the books. Do I think it can happen again tonight with the Pats. I can make an argument for it but I'm not going out on a limb, right? The one thing you have to factor in tonight with the total is that it's a divisional game, the first of two tonight. This week, there were 3 other divisional matchups (SF/ARI, SEA/STL, NYG/WAS)...The 'under' went 2-1 and the Redskins added 7 meaningless points late plus that game had a lot of big plays too. These clubs are familiar with each other and blowouts do happen but I would argue that tight affairs happen more. Q: Rocco (Philly) I agree with your method of finding the sharp money listed above. But Sportsbook.com no longer lists the open AND current line, it's only the current line.....any idea why? Another one I like to use is bringing up the TOP TEN Bets and going against the top 3. R: chrisd Hi Rocco Thanks for the feedback! VegasInsider.com is proud to show the Open and Current on our home page MegaBoard. It's one of our great features, you should check it out there. The Top 10 bets feature is good too, but it usually circulates around the tv games, which get the most action. It's a better feature when you have a full card. Check that out on Saturday! Good Luck! Q: Rave Chris - It seems a little obvious to go for the over tonight (although I did already) in the Bills vs Pats game. Should I be concerned about the Pats putting up 35+ points and the New England Defense nearly shutting down the Bills? R: chrisd Hi Rave I don't think NE's defense will shut anybody down this year but the unit is fortunate to face the Bills, Jets and Fins twice each. None of those teams do much for me offensively. If you look at the Pats' schedule, it's hard not to pencil them into the first round bye of the playoffs. Seriously, I don't see them losing unless Tom Brady is not 100%. If he's at par or better, they can go 14-2 by mistake. Q: Mike I want to take Raiders but isn't it the same Oakland team that was highly touted coming into last season that laid a massive egg against Denver 41-14 at home? Let's do it Chris, lay the wood and hope for the best :) R: chrisd Hi Mike Love how you bring up the Eddie Royal show. I'm still bumming over my 'under' bet in that game, when they posted 28 in the 4th. Unreal. I don't like Russell at all, would've been happier with Garcia, who just got signed by the Eagles. He's a solid pro, they'll be better off with him than Kolb. Q: eddie kc Tell me your best NFL over or under,for to nights games and why? Is it possible,for you to give us one winner and why? R: chrisd Hi Eddie My days as a professional expert are gone but I'm fortunate to handicap the handicappers at VegasInsider.com. These guys all have documented records (good and bad). Check them out and feel free to send me an email (cdavid@vegasinsider.com) for comp plays, mention SB and VI and I'll respond. For tonight... Bills-Patriots Winners Chargers-Raiders Winners Q: Jerry(San Diego) Hi Chris. I know there's going to be a lot of questions for you on the 2 NFL games to night, so I'm gonna skip that. Let's forward to Thurs. and Fri. College games. Miami(FL) -4, these just seems to easy? and they are playing at home too. And Fresno catching 7.5 pts. Actually I have no idea on this game, so your opinion please. Thanks. GL everyone. oh, and by the way SD 38 OAK 0 final .....Go CHARGERSSSSSS!!!!!!!! R: chrisd Hi Jerry The only game that jumped out to me early in NCAAFB is playing on Oregon at home against Utah. It's the old, "Unranked Favorite over a Ranked Tea" system. Utah is living off last year's run at 13-0 and people are down on Oregon (0-2 ATS) right now, but playing in Eugene is a nightmare. Lay the 4.5 with the Ducks and see the cashier! Q: Rob Garrett I am a little hesistant to make Tom Bray my premium selection because I am worried he'll be rusty and laying 11-point is a lot to cover especially in NFL. What is your take on Buffalo +11 as well as the under in this spot please? GL with your wagers tonight. R: chrisd Hi Rob Good Luck with your wagers...this is what I would advise tonight. Don't go nuts because you have plenty of season left but take a serious shot with the Raiders/Chargers under, just based on the sharp money system. I would also lean toward NE team total, if you can get 29. I see them scoring six times if they get 12 possessions, which is the norm. Now, you need 3 TDs and 3 FGs, which is the worst case scenario. Two plays NE Team Total OVER Raiders/Chargers Under Enjoyed folks! Always available via email. Thanks -CD |
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