Bookie Chat
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Chat with the Vegas Insider Handicappers at 3:30pm EST
Q: Bob (Arizona) Kevin, how are you doing buddy? I have a big play tonight on Boise St -7..... The line is now Boise -7.5 everywhere.... Am I in good shape? Should I bet more on Boise St even at this new price range? Take care and best of luck with your picks tonight. R: krogers Good to be here on this Friday afternoon. Let's get things started. Hey, Bob. The Boise/Fresno game is very interesting, as we see if Pat Hill's team can bounce back from the loss at Wisconsin last week. It's tough for me to make a solid argument for the underdog. I would say you're right on with the Broncos, but that hook is dangerous. Q: Jeff (Vegas) Yo Kevin. I have a few games that I really like for this weekend but would like to hear your opinion before pulling the trigger: how about Syracuse +3, Arizona +4 and BYU -6.5..... The game I like the most is Florida Gators -28.5. Take care R: krogers Hey Jeff. As an FSU grad, I'd like to see the Noles put up a better effort than we saw against Jacksonville State last week. The Cougars have been impressive their first two games, and I see the Noles struggling in Provo. As far as the other two 'dogs go, Syracuse hung tough against Minnesota, and could only do so much at Penn State. I like Northwestern in this spot, I think the Cuse is getting too much love from the oddsmakers here. Arizona is a solid play, the Wildcats have improved under Mike Stoops and held down a good CMU offense in their opener. It's tough for me to make a convincing argument for the Vols walking into this bear trap in Gainesville. Urban and Tebow are going to run the Vols out of the Swamp. Q: Luis Bengals +9 is too easy to pick this week so I am tempted to take Green Bay @home instead. I do like Detroit +10 at home though. How bad can it get in Detroit these days? You would think they will want to avoid 0-2 start or at least lose by a small margin right? R: krogers Hey Luis. The public did extremely well last Sunday in the NFL, and I think it reverts back this weekend. Cincinnati was a huge public play, and the Bengals did not play well in that loss to the Broncos. However, Green Bay was not impressive against Chicago, even though the Pack forced four turnovers from Jay Cutler. I like the Bengals to stay within this number. Detroit still has a long way to go, but the Lions were burned by an incredible passing game by Drew Brees and the Saints last week. Now, they face a Vikings squad that is concentrating more on the run with Adrian Peterson. I'd feel better about taking the points with a home divisional 'dog than laying it with the Vikings. Q: Don Coleman (El Paso) Yo Kevin. 'Skins are laying 9-points at home against St. Louis Rams Sunday. Is it a bad line? I like the Rams in this spot, I may play Chicago Bears +3 as well. Thanks so much for your time. R: krogers Hey Don. I believe the Rams could be the worst team in football, even worse than the Lions. With that being said, I would not feel great about laying that number with the offensively-challenged Redskins. St. Louis won at Washington last season as double-digit 'dogs, and let's not forget that Jim Zorn's team scored one of its two touchdowns on a fake field goal. I think the Bears is the sleeper pick of the weekend. If Jay Cutler can stop throwing the ball to the other team, the Bears may not be too bad. The Bears defense got in Aaron Rodgers' head last Sunday, but couldn't close the deal. With Urlacher and Polamalu out, that does even things up a bit, at least defensively. I wouldn't be shocked if Chicago won outright. Q: Gasan This parlay must cash or I will be in trouble: Syracuse(+4)+Kansas (-23)+ Washington(+19.5) Please share with us gamblers your best underdog play of the week please? R: krogers Hey Gasan. I hope you cash in and don't get in trouble, but I'll give you my thoughts. I mentioned earlier about Syracuse, and how I favor Northwestern more in that matchup, but it's still a toss-up. I do like Kansas, Mark Mangino has been known to run up scores in the past against non-conference opponents. Duke did beat Army last week, but this is a much more explosive offense they'll see in Lawrence. The thing I like about UW this week is the Sarkisian factor, and just plain more motivation on the Huskies' sidelines. USC is coming off that emotional Ohio State victory, and now open up Pac-10 play against a team they should beat. The points is probably the play there with the Huskies. As far as best underdog of the weekend, call me crazy, but I like the Browns getting three at Denver. The Broncos have been a terrible home team ATS over the last few seasons, and I was not impressed with them last week, even with that lucky touchdown at the end. Q: Teddyman1972@yahoo.com Hello Kevin. Will the Panthers finally come back and play up to their expectation? Do you think John fox is on hot seat now? I think they'll collect a W this week against the Falcons. See you at the bank. R: krogers Hey Teddy. I was on the Panthers last week and was very disappointed in their effort. Still, they head to Atlanta in an important division game against a Falcons team that forced four turnovers against the Dolphins in Week 1. I do see the Panthers bouncing back, and it's tough for a guy like John Fox to be on the hot seat after making the Panthers relevant again. Save me a spot in line at the bank. Q: Tim (Chicago) Have some college football questions for you please Kevin. How bad is Colorado and Dan Hawkins? Also,tough spot but I do like North Carolina a lot. Do you agree with my plays? R: krogers Hey Tim. Colorado has plenty of problems right now after losing to Colorado State and Toledo the first two weeks. I actually have a play on this game, which you can check out with my College Football Pick Pack. With the Tar Heels, I watched most of their game last week at UConn, and it was a tough spot for Butch Davis' team, being a road favorite. East Carolina plays their second road game in as many weeks, after losing to West Virginia in a revenge spot for the Mountaineers. The Pirates have been a good underdog play under Skip Holtz, but I expect a better effort out of UNC this week at home. Q: Anthony (NY) I thought Southern Miss -17 tomorrow is a decent play. I also thought 49ers -2 on the road against Seattle is also a great play. Your opinion is greatly appreciated. R: krogers Hey Anthony. Southern Miss is an odd line against Virginia. Yes, the Wahoos did lose at home to William & Mary, then were manhandled by a solid TCU squad. Maybe the best thing for Al Groh's team is to head on the road, and out of Charlottesville. This is still a pretty good C-USA team hosting a middle-of-the-road ACC squad and laying over two touchdowns. I think it may be a bit too much. As far as the Niners go, I do like them against Seattle. San Francisco slowed down Arizona last week, and the Niners have a good veteran defense led by Pro Bowler Patrick Willis. The Seahawks looked good last week, but they did play a Rams team they should have beaten convincingly. Q: Yoni B, Miami What's up K-Rog, There's a lot of early action on the J-E-T-S this week. Do you think this is sharp or public money?? Personally, I'm not buying the hype, leave it to Tommy and the boys to be challenged and they always produce when people are doubting them. Im looking for NE to win big....Thoughts.... Lost 4 Dimes week 1, had every bad beat on the board (K.C.+13, NYG-6.5, Bears) Please give me one winner, at this pase Im not gonna make it through to week 4. Help a fellow degenerate out.... R: krogers Hey Yoni. That stinkin Tom Brady came back again, and once you think the Pats are buried, they surprise you. Bill Belichick is 8-0 ATS and 7-1 SU at the Meadowlands as coach of New England. The Pats are beat up on defense, but this feels like more of a letdown spot for Mark Sanchez and the Jets off the impressive win at Houston. One winner on the board this week...I'll give you the Bengals at Green Bay. Lots of points for the Packers to cover off an important division game. Good luck. Q: Nigel(Virginia Beach) Hi kevin,thanks for being here, I'm thinking about taking (NFL) tennessee, baltimore, and Pittsburgh ATS, what do you think? Thanks R: krogers Hey Nigel. Not huge on the Steelers this week, I like the Bears as the surprise 'dog of the weekend to win outright. The public is all over the Titans, and even though I don't think they'll repeat their success from last year, I like them here. Houston has struggled in Nashville over the years, and with the extra three days to prepare off the Steelers loss, Jeff Fisher will have the Titans ready to beat the Texans. The Ravens are also a quiet 'dog play, as LaDainian Tomlinson missed a couple days of practice this week and may miss the game. Baltimore is better offensively than we think, and this is a good spot for the Ravens, even traveling west. Q: Brad (Birmingham) I like Uconn to cover the big number against Baylor. Baylor is much improved but not enough to lay 10.5 to a solid UConn D. What are your thoughts. R: krogers Hey Brad. UConn was pretty good last week on the defensive side of the ball, keeping UNC out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. This week is a different story. Baylor is much improved, while the Huskies will be without QB Zack Frazer, who is out two weeks after getting hurt last Saturday. I don't see UConn scoring points here. Good luck. Q: Henry Lee hi, penn st has failed to cover the last 2 games. can they cover this week? the line scares me though, as they will need to win by 31 points for me to win this wager. Sick! R: krogers Hey Henry. Penn State probably should have covered the first two weeks, but took the foot off the pedal. Against Temple, this is a lot of points, but does the "third time's a charm" theory work here? I don't think it's asking much for Joe Pa's group to cover against the Owls. Q: Weave: GR, Mi. How do you see this week's Rutgers game? R: krogers Hey Weave. Rutgers struggled in their opener against a good Cincinnati team before beating Howard last week. FIU is an improving team in the Sun Belt, and hung around with Alabama for a bit last week before getting blown out. I don't have a solid opinion here, but don't be surprised if the Golden Panthers stay within the number. Q: mike (los angeles) i like cincy bearcats what is your pic on this game? R: krogers Hey Mike. It's tough for Brian Kelly's Bearcats to go cross-country and knock off the Beavers. Does that mean they can't do it? No. But, don't forget what OSU did against USC last season, and for Mike Riley's team to cash is just to win straight-up. I prefer Oregon State in this spot. Good luck. Q: jake Hi, thanks for taking my question.. i was wondering how you feel about taking teams that haven't shown much so far in college football and NFL, but figure to be stronger as the year goes on (ie. FSU, texas, texans, cardinals). Do you recommend staying away from them while they are cold or getting on early anticipating a recovery? Also, how much do lines reflect recent play as opposed to predicting future results? thanks, jacob R: krogers Hey Jake. I've felt that handicapping football is so different than the daily sports because there is varying motivations when you have a week to prepare for a game. One thing I've learned in the NFL is we know nothing after the first week, or even the first month. Does that mean to stay away? Not necessarily. Just don't put too much stock into any one game. On the second question, the oddsmakers are looking to put out a line that will get equal action on both sides, and perception has a lot to do with it. I don't think they look to far ahead when putting out lines, instead of the here and now. Best of luck. Q: Eric Chiu What's up Kevin? Thanks for taking my question. Do you think Boise-Fresno game will go OVER the total tonight? I have a lean on home 'dog but I've been wrong before with this bad team. How do you see this game please? R: krogers Hey Eric. Tonight's total of 53/53.5 is the lowest in the rivalry in the last nine matchups. Boise can obviously put up points, but will Fresno keep up with the Broncos? Unless totals reach the 60's in college, I don't feel comfortable taking 'unders' because these teams can score so quick. As far as the side goes, I like Boise to cover on the road. Best of luck to everyone this weekend, and we'll talk again soon. |
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