Bookie Chat
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Monday Night Football Chat at 5:30pm EST
Q: tom(denver_ hi brian, i like mia, and the over. But i dont know know why the over is at 36? how do you think about this game? thanks Brian R: briane Good afternoon ladies and gents! Let's talk some football. The Jets have enjoyed a bunch of success in South Florida through the years. In fact, they are 6-0 against the spread in their last six trips to Joe Robbie or Pro Player or whatever the hell they call out these days. The Jets have won outright in four of those last six games. Dating back even further, the Jets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games at Miami. As for the total in the 36-37 range, it's certainly a low number. The 'under' is 3-1 for Jets so far, 2-2 for 'Fins. I don't have a play on the total. Q: Bob Do professional bettors tend to bet early or do they wait until game time to bet? I like Jets -2.5 until I notice 90% action is on Jets so I am laying off the game. Thanks R: briane Bob: I think it depends on the situation. If you feel good about a play early in the week at the number you're looking at, there's no reason not to go ahead and pull the trigger, especially if you suspect the number to move against you. Now if you liked the Jets at -1.5 most of last week, I don't think you should hesitate at making the play just because the number is now at three. Now if the number were to go above that key number, then perhaps you lay off. I understand your hesitation to not back the Jets with the public going that way. I prefer the public to not be "all in" (so to speak) on the same side as me, but I don't let it prevent me from making the play if I feel good about having handicapped the game correctly. Q: Eric Chiu Yo Brian. Jets have been playing well in Florida but this is a different year. Do you know the total seems low? If I had to play the game, I would take the Under. Thoughts? R: briane I'm not real high on the total. Slight lean to the 'over' but not with a bunch of confidence. I've got the side in my pick pack. It's a pay-if-it-wins-only selection if you'd like to check it out. Q: Jeff (Vegas) Brian, what's going on? Ryan used to be assistant coach for the Ravens but he is Jets HC now. Will he have experience in stopping Jets high-flying unit? I like Jets to lay short number here in this spot. GL R: briane Jeff: I assume you mean Miami's high-flying unit but with a QB making his second career start (Chad Henne), I don't know that I'd describe the Dolphins' offense as high-flying. Now they did hang an impressive 38-spot on the Bills last week, but I don't know that we'll see Miami scoring that many points very often this season and certainly not tonight. The Jets' defense has only given up 7, 9, 19 and 24 points this year and the Saints got 14 of their 24 points on defensive TDs. Good luck to you tonight. Q: Tim (Chicago) Seriously, I am not 100% sold on Jets. Miami has been good stopping the run this year and I like their chances at home. Not sure about the total but Miami looks like winner here. R: briane We'll see. Jets are playing second road game in as many weeks. The key in my mind is how Henne handles the constant blitzing he'll face from Rex Ryan's aggressive defensive unit. Q: Anthony (ny) This is low total but I am not afraid to play the Under 36 . Tricky to get your hands around the 'dogs here. How do you see this game Brian? R: briane Again, slight lean to 'over' but not with much confidence. Jets' defense has been real nasty this year. Q: Luis Hey Brian, is J-E-T-S the huge play tonight bro.?.... They should get a major boost with Braylon Edwards, but more so I think Mark Sanchez will bounce back with another efficient effort and work towards getting his team back in the win column. After some bad turnovers New York will dial back the plays and should focus on getting Thomas Jones and Leon Washington set up with the running game. The ground attack and more defense will be enough on Monday night. Take care. R: briane Jets want to live and die with defense and the running game all year long. Now they want Sanchez to make play when needed through the air, but they are most interested in him taking care of the ball and not making mistakes. Q: cole (charlotte) Thanks for the time and expertise, Brian. Any prop bets we should be giving consideration tonight? R: briane Cole: GREAT question! Let's talk some props. Now let me be clear, I want to sink or swim with my main pick for Monday Night Football and that's on the side tonight. But for MNF and/or the Super Bowl and certain other situations, I like to have fun with a few props. And in those instances, I like to make small plays that can pay big dividends. One that caught my eye for tonight is Leon Washington to score the first TD of the game for a plus-750 return (risk $100 to win $750). Washington is a kick and punt returner who can score that way. He can also break a screen pass into a big play. Now more than likely, Thomas Jones would get the touches in a goal-to-go situation, but Washington can get a long TD or one via the special-teams route. Jets' TE Dustin Keller (+600) might also be worth a shot but again, make this sort of wager for much less than your main bet for the game. Q: dan (phila) vegasinsider reports public is on Jet (87%) & over (80%). What is your thought? Is that the accurate percentage of actual players? R: briane Dan: I'm not sure if those percentages reflect the amount of money or the amount of wagers. Will try to find that out and report back before the chat is over. Q: Ray in the Bay area I think the game tonight will be a very close battle, I have not capped the special teams for either team...does one side have an advantage tonight on special teams ? R: briane Well in the return game, I think the Jets have the advantage with Washington's big-play potential. Check what I said about Washington returning punts (he has in the past). Jim Leonhard has been handling those duties for the Jets and is 4th in the NFL right now with a 15.7 yard average. Davone Bess for the 'Fins hasn't returned a punt longer than 12 yards all year. Neither punter very good, Jets' Feely the better kicker although he's missed some practice this week for personal reasons. I give Jets the advantage in special teams. Q: TODD-N.Y. I LIKE THE FINS +3 AT HOME, I KNOW WHAT THE STATS SAY BUT THE TWO QUARTERBACKS IN THIS CONTEST DONT HAVE A LOT OF EXPERINCE THATS WHY I TAKE THE POINTS AND RUN, WHAT DO YOU THINK? R: briane I give Sanchez and Jets the edge at QB position, although Henne was impressive in first career start last week. Q: Rocco Philly I know Sanchez has had a great start to his NFL career with the Jets......but laying 3 with a rookie QB on the road in his 1st Monday Night game sounds like a sucker bet to me. Of course, Henne's still wet behind hte ears as well. Do you think the Dolphins can grind out a win on the ground tonight? R: briane Rocco: Agreed on all your valid points and I do think the team that runs the ball most effectively will win. Q: Tom (Chicago) Hey Brian, would you recommend a teaser for this game tonight? Thanks R: briane I don't like going the teaser route with the side and total of one game. The only time I consider a teaser is when I get two home teams favored by 6-8 points, bumping them down to basically just win outright. Q: Nelson Hi Brian ! whats your take on the Rockies / Philies game Tonight...Thanks R: briane I like the Phillies with Lee throwing, he's 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA against the Rockies in a pair of starts this season. Q: Reggie Razorbacks Brian: Can my Hogs or South Carolina pull an upset against the SEC's big boys this week? I like both teams as big 'dogs. R: briane I'd say South Carolina has the better chance of pulling a stunner but I don't see either happening. With that said, 'Bama and Florida both fall into classic letdown spots after huge road wins at Ole Miss and at LSU, respectively. And I think both numbers are inflated and I'll be giving major consideration to both underdogs. One thing Steve Spurrier has to be happy about is that Stephen Garcia has only thrown one interception in his last 138 pass attempts. I will say this about Arkansas, though. Ryan Mallett looks outstanding. If he doesn't have the look of a future first-round pick at QB, then I have no business discussing the draft. His arm is a rocket and he has the size and toughness you look for. Q: mikec altoona briane lets talk early lines next week in cfb i like cincy -3 vs usf not afraid of the underdog curse also like pitt -3 vs rutgers i think pitt is very undervalued this season also like minnestoa +16.5 vs penn st minnestoa always plays them tough and penn st hasnt beaten anyone with a pulse thoughts on any of these games or any suprising lines that u saw like neb only opening at -6.5 vs ttu at home R: briane Mike: Would that be Altoona as in Cherokee County north of Atlanta? If so, beautiful area. I'm ok with backing the Bearcats. Love head coach Brian Kelly and QB Tony Pike and I'm not giving USF's win at FSU as much credence as I was when it happened. I had Pitt against UConn for a loser Saturday so a little sour on that squad right now. With that said, I made the number 4.5 so it's a tad smaller than I suspected. Rutgers has been a big disappointment to date. That Nebraska number did open at six but has shot up into the 9-10 range. I had Mizzou against Nebraska this past Thursday and thought I took a bad beat with the Tigers leading 12-0 early in the fourth quarter before Blaine Gabbert committed his first turnover(s) of the season. Seems like a bunch of points for the Red Raiders to be catching. Q: Ez Eddie From KC Hi Brian Underdog Ed here!You have to come to KC best looking women around ! Need one winner on the total. Please. R: briane Eddie Underdogs from KC: Long time, buddy! I'd go 'over' on total but again, not super confident in it. Q: Matt (Denver, Broncos Country) Hey Brian, thanks for your time this afternoon. Back to props: I like Thomas Jones UNDER 57.5 rush yards against Miami's tough rush D and also Dustin Keller OVER 39.5 receiving yards, expecting him to have a nice game. Any input? Thanks again! R: briane Matt from 'Rado: I'd prefer 'over' on Thomas Jones' rushing yards. I think he gets into the 75-90 range tonight. But I do agree with you on Keller, tight end is a good friend to rookie QBs. Q: Don Coleman What's up Brian? Thanks for taking my question. I like Miami's wildcats D and I think they'll have success against the Jets. Miami has proved they can run the ball and they should have beaten Colts few weeks back. Give me Miami +3 for 2 dimes please. GL too all R: briane Don: Good luck on that play! Allright, folks, gotta wrap things up. Please be on the look out for my Week 5 NFL Rewind that I'll have posted later tonight. And tomorrow (or hopefully later tonight if I get on a serious roll) I'll have a Boise St.-Tulsa preview (heads-up on this nice mid-major game for Wednesday. No content for the Sun Belt game tomorrow but we can bet on it and I'll have a play up for that tomorrow. No days off during football season. Good luck to all on your wagers tonight and all week and don't hesitate to contact me at briane@vegasinsider.com with any questions/concerns at anytime. Over and out... |
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