Bookie Chat
| |
|||
|
Monday Night Football Chat at 5:30pm EST
Q: Tim (Chicago) Yo Judd, great call on the Over last week.... Do you think we see another shootout tonight? I like Denver and the Unde with more emphasis on the side play. Denver +3 seems like a great deal. See ya at the bank! R: judd Good evening everyone. I hope everyone is ready to earn some money tonight with a great Monday Night Football matchup. Hey there, Tim. The Chargers have the firepower on offense to make things run. And the Broncos have played mistake free on the attack. What I look at here is the Chargers' defense here. I'm not real sold on San Diego's stopping unit. Denver's defense has looked sharp though all year long. The total sitting at 45 is in a spot where I truly believe the 'over' is going to come in on a backdoor. Either way, we're going to sweat out that result. Q: Jason Do you trust Kyle Orton on the road? What's the theory behind the move from San Diego -3 to -3.5? I don't think it will be a close game and I GLADLY take the home team laying short number. Thoughts? R: judd If Kyle Orton has showed anything this year, it's that he is a great game manager. He's been able to play that role so well because of Denver's defense. The reasoning for the line moving up a half-point has to be simply a move to create more action on the Broncos. A little surprising when you consider how close the money is at Sportsbook.com on our megaboard. You'd be wise to hang with the Bolts to cover though since they're 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The push was that BS game last year with Guns Hocchuli. Q: Don Coleman Hi Judd. Denver ML seems like a great play. What do you think? R: judd Hey Don, This is one of the spots that I like to take a run at the money line. You're getting a three-point, 3.5-point spread and those are default lines by the sportsbooks. And you're getting a good value to play along on Denver at +150 or better depending on where you play. Also, the Broncos have been 'dogs in three games already this season. And they paid off the money line. Why wouldn't you take a shot on the outright win? Q: Wayne I am not really into statistics but how much do you weigh turnovers and sacks in your handicapping decisions? I know Denver has done well with both this year. Thanks R: judd Hey there, Wayne. Stats can be manipulated into making anything someone says to be true. But those two stats help me in determining which totals play is smart to work on. Consider that game between the Panthers and Cowboys. Delhomme was sacked three times and picked off twice. Romo got sacked twice as well. Those plays kill offensive drives. Another thing to watch out for is third down conversions. Denver has the second best defense on third down in the league...They've also seen the 'under' go 5-0. Q: TIM (FORT WAYNE) SAN DIEGO -4 45. CAN BET BOTH AND TEASE EACH 7 POINTS. YOUR ADVISE PLEASE. NEED TO MAKE A MIRACULOUS RECOVERY. R: judd Well I know what you mean about making a big recovery. I had a bad Sunday, but one strong win on Monday can make it all better. I, much like our own Brian Edwards, am not a big fan of teasers on single games. This is a line that was set as such because San Diego is the home team. If the line was around 7, then I'd consider it, but this isn't worth the risk. Q: Eric Chiu What's up Judd? What is your best play tonight? Side or total? Chris David wrote an article on VI that the wiseguys are all over Denver +3 tonight and I absolutely agree with this move. Your take on this? R: judd Hey Eric. I'm on the same side with you and CD for this game tonight. Denver has fooled a lot of betting shops and helped bettors pad their bankrolls. And like I said earlier, Denver is a nice money line risk. Q: Josh (Arizona) Hi Judd. Thanks for taking my question. People think its a flat game for Denver after last week but I think teams tend to be up for it if it's MNF. I like Denver/Over in my 2-team parlay. Do you agree/disagree? R: judd I could see where this could be a trap game after a come from behind win over the Pats in OT last week for Denver. But this is an old school AFL rivalry. They don't like one another and the let down spot doesn't come into play here. As far as the total, I'm more on the 'under.' But MNF has been an 'over' play for a couple of years. Q: jerry(San Diego) Hi Judd. i like to fast forward to the mid-week games Tulsa v. el paso....Tulsa with firepower can pull it off? Fl st. v. N.C...Fl St. having a bad record this year going into N.C. I believe they can get the win this week? rugters v. army.....army with probably there best start so far, can they keep up with rugters??? Thanks for your time Judd ....GL everyone..........GO CHARGERRRRRRSSSSSSS!!!!! R: judd Hey, Jerry. Love to talk some college football. Tulsa has the creativity to kill the Miners pretty easily. And the Golden Hurricane should have won last week against Boise State outright. Florida State is going to look ugly on offense again this week, but will get just enough done against NC State. Q: Anthony (NY) Not sure why folks are on Denver. They are overrated and @home, San Diego will beat this team by 2 TDs. Mark my words! The only issue I have is whether this game will go OVER or not. R: judd Alright folks! We are marking Anthony's words right now. Chargers by two touchdowns. Q: Chris NY Hey Judd, I can see where this can become a offensive shootout. But I get that gut wrenching feeling that this game will be a defensive struggle to a extent. I am saying that it becomes a 20-17 game with Denver coming out on top. Would you agree? R: judd Hey Chris, I'm looking at the end result coming in at around that same spot. I wouldn't be suprised if it ends up lower. Especially with the lack of running game from San Diego. Q: Marc H. (Ft. Lauderdale) Do you think that the Raiders can cover +6.5 this weekend? They beat a pretty good Philadelphia team at home and are playing the wailing jets this weekend as well. Also do you like FSU over NC in this weeks thursday nite game? One more question what do you think of Indianapolis -13 over St. Louis next Sunday? Got any sleepers or locks of the week? Thanks for answering my question Judd! btw we have the same last name?! R: judd Hey Marc, Sanchez didn't have his best game last Sunday and will have a tougher test this week on his first cross-country trip. Oakland got the win last week by the grace of God (or Al Davis). But the Jets are a middle of the road team that should be prime pickings for a home dog cover by Oakland. And teams coming in as six-point road faves following a loss as home favorites are 10-7 SU and 7-10 ATS. Not an overwhelming stat, but plays to what you're looking for. I mentioned earlier that I like the 'Noles to win big this week against NC State. As for any sleepers, we'll look for those in my picks. Q: Julie (LA) Hi Judd. Do you think we'll see San Diego -3 by game time? I love the home favorite in this spot. Only thing that concerns me is the fact that San Diego OL is banged up. Which team will show up tonight please? Best of luck to you. R: judd Hey, Julie. I'm leaning more on Denver tonight with the wiseguys. I see the Broncos getting to Rivers at a good clip tonight. You can get -3 at some places right now. But don't look for many spots that are at -3.5 to move down this close to kickoff. Q: john ( sacramento ) Hi Judd- Appreciate your time & advice . What's your take on the LAD / PHILS game tonight - I think Philly is just too strong for LA & could very easily be 3-0 right now R: judd A lot of people are going to look at the 11-0 game and say that the Dodgers are done. I don't buy into that at all when it comes to baseball. Wolf has been pitching well recently and would love nothing more than to even up this series against his old pals. You might even want to lean on the 'under' as well. Alright folks, it's been a great time. Now let's grab some brews and gear up for a great game. Good luck everyone and remember to e-mail me at judd@vegasinsider.com if you have any questions. |
|||
