Bookie Chat
| |
|||
|
Monday Night Football Chat at 5:30pm EST
Q: John (Atlanta) Hey Brian, thanks for being here. The Saints are unstoppable and they pretty much can name the score here. I already got to the window with Saints -11 but would like to know if you like the Over 54 as well. Thanks much! R: briane Good evening, everyone! Bets and Ballgames galore so let's get started. John: I think the Saints was the play at -10 and 54. But now most spots are at 11.5 and 56 and I think at those numbers, you have to be careful and consider how inflated these digits are. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the number at 7.5. All that said, New Orleans is the lone NFL team left that's unbeaten both straight up and against the spread. And with Atlanta CB Brian Williams now out for the season with an ACL tear suffered two weeks ago against the Bears, Tony Romo and Miles Austin certainly made that Falcons' secondary look vulrerable (and stupid) last week. You would think New Orleans will have success against that secondary. We'll see what happens... Q: Don Coleman Brian, the books need Atlanta to cover tonight because of the beatings they took last week. Is it a spot to go against the public and get on the Falcons? R: briane Since the number has gone north of 10, I think you have to give the 'dog a shot. Falcons cash even if they lose 31-21. If New Orleans gets ahead of the number, the backdoor cover will remain a possibility. Mike Smith's team needs to get Michael "The Burner" Turner cranked back up this week. They might get Jerious Norwood back, too, and that could provide a boost. Q: LOS ANGELES Do you think we will see the FALCONS Offense show up today or have the same type of game as last week against DALLAS? I am thinking of taking the SAINTS but that's a lot of points R: briane It is a lot of points. This is the biggest underdog spot since Smith took over the Falcons. A 9 1/2-point 'dog spot at Philadelphia was the riches for Atlanta last year. The Eagles covered that game in a 27-14 win but it was a VERY bad beat for Atlanta backers. In fact, an atrocious call prevented the Falcons from having the ball beyond midfield with a chance to win trailing 20-14 with just more than two minutes left. The call couldn't be reviewed because the Falcons were out of timeouts and the clock wasn't under two minutes yet (for the booth to automatically review). Q: Bob Morse I like Atlanta +10.5 but I am very concern about their D. Five of their starters left town in the offseason and now they are facing one of the best teams in history? Is it a goog excuse to lay off the game or should I go on to place small wager on Atlanta and the Under? R: briane Bob: I understand your concern for the Falcons' defense. But I will say that that unit was playing well before last week's trip to Dallas. Maybe the secondary plays better this week after having a week to adjust to the loss of Brian Williams (starting CB, done for season w/ ACL)? Atlanta needs to get pressure on Drew Brees and that means a big game from John Abraham is key. Q: Anythony The total seems high but if there is one game that I could take the OVER with confidence, it's this game. What's your take? R: briane It's a very high number. In fact, I'm pretty sure it's the highest NFL total we've seen this year. All that said, it's certainly reachable. New Orleans has scored 45 points or more in four of its six games. Q: Alex Chiu Hey Brian, how is it going buddy? Big game for the home team tonight. I sorta like to take on Atlanta but New Orleans has proved then can score 2 TDs in 2 minutes. If you play the Falcons and they are up a TD heading into the 4rd qtr,NO still can cover this game right? Laying points with the favorite seems like a much safer bet here. R: briane Perhaps, we've seen the Saints rally from a 24-3 deficit as recently as last week and not only rally to win, but also take the cash as seven-point favorites. So most definitely, you have to respect the explosiveness of the Saints. On the flip side, it's always worth consideration when you can back a quality team catching such a big number. So I think bettors have to ask themselves this: Was Atlanta's meltdown in a 16-point loss at Dallas last week an aberration, or are the Falcons a team that's going to score a lot of points weekly to compensate for a secondary that looks shaky? Q: Luis Hey BE. How can you NOT like the home favorite here: they are playing at home, on national TV, they routed the Giants at the Superdome 48-27. Am I the only one seeing this or am I complete wrong? R: briane Well Luis, none of us will know until later tonight. I understand your enthusiasm for the Saints, but they've had a lot of good things happens for them when you take into account three pick-sixes by Darren Sharper and if I'm not mistaken, I believe he also had a scoop-and-score (fumble recovery for a TD). If Atlanta can take care of the ball and win the turnover battle, it will have a GREAT chance at taking the cash catching such a rich number. Q: Brad (Birmingham) I like Buffalo tomorrow. Their running game has started to gear up and BG is very vunerable against the run. Also other than the W. Mich game they have been good against the pass and BG is a one-dimensional passing team. What are your thoughts? Saw your Gators in Starkville 2 weeks ago. My Dawgs gave them a pretty good fight. A. Dixon for Heisman! R: briane Brad: I had Mississippi State catching those points against my Gators, so that game worked well for me. I haven't given the Buffalo game for Tuesday night a look yet, but I will have a play for that game that should be available by lunch tomorrow at the latest. Anthony Dixon for Heisman is a stretch but I did call him the nation's most underrated running back back in July, and he's lived up to that billing with an oustanding senior campaign. Q: Jersey Mark Any thoughts on the baseball game, I like the Yanks, Phillies are DONE. Also like the Falcons. Any thoughts would be appreciated as I tryIng to get even FROM TAKING THE PHILLIES IN THE SERIES. Thanks for the feedback. R: briane I think the Phillies on the run line is the play. On full rest, I think you give Philly a huge edge in starting pitching with Cliff Lee opposing A.J. Burnett throwing on just three days of rest which is very rare in Burnett's career. The run-line play should get you a plus-140 payout (risk $100 to win $140). As for my NFL picks, I've sort of sat on the fence during this chat, giving you arguments for both sides. I did decide to play the side and total and have it in my pick pack if anyone wants to check it out. I cashed with the Eagles and the 'over' in last week's edition of MNF. Q: Jeff Yo Brian, how is it going buddy? Listen, I don't mind laying points with the Saints but if they are down by 20 points like they did last week vs Miami, I don't think they can mount a comeback right? I am thinking to play Atlanta 1H and New Orleans 2H. Thoughts? R: briane Hard to say if I would like the Saints in the second half but if Atlanta does have the outright lead at intermission, you'll certainly be in a situation to play the Saints and not be on the hook to cover a double-digit number. I'm not necessarily bullish on an Atlanta first-half wager. The Saints' 2H bet might be attractive, but can't say for certain without knowing what the score/situation will be. Q: Famster This is the game that NO needs to win big. Even if the line is rising to -13.5, I still like NO to win by 2 TDs. Your take? R: briane There's no need for New Orleans to win big. The Saints would take a one-point win in their division opener and go home with smiles on their faces. If you're just simply trying to put emphasis on this being a bigger game for Saints because it's a division game, then yes, I agree. But that doesn't mean they have in extra motivation to win big and cover for gamblers. Q: TheFin Falcons will try to emulate Miami's gameplan against NO sans the collapse. I smell big upset tonight my friends.. Get on Falcons now. Take all the points while you are at it. R: briane Without a doubt, Atlanta wants to run the ball effectively with Michael Turner to keep Drew Brees and that explosive offense off the field. Run effectively with Turner and win the turnover battle -- that's the Falcons formula for success tonight. Executing it will be another story. Q: jim kallas pittsburgh pa hi brian i need a winner im going to tease the game atlanta +18 under 60 what do you think thank you R: briane I think you have two numbers that shouldn't be as high as they are, so you have to feel decent about it. You just don't want Sharper getting back in the end zone. Avoid the pick-6's and scoop and scores, and you have a great shot. Q: Jerry(San Diego) Hi Brian. I know that there's going to be many questions on the MNF game, so I would like to ask a question on the San Diego Clippers v. Minn. Last 3 meetings has gone under, but I notice the line move from 193 to 196 now??? thoughts? and can my favorite SD Clippers actually pull one off playing at home? Minn is not very good this year. Also, looking forward to some of the Ncaa football on midweek any teams you like? Thanks for your time Brian and GL everyone R: briane I like the T-wolves tonight! The only negative to discuss is that they are in a back-to-back spot, but it's early in the year for that to keep me off an attractive 'dog. The Clippers are winless in four games and we can fade them with an eight-point underdog? I'm in! Q: Matt (Denver) Hey BE, thanks for chatting! Let's talk some props: anything catch your eye for tonight? Brees under 314.5 pass yards (+105) seems like a solid play. As does Roddy White under 81.5 rec yards...thoughts? Thanks! R: briane 81.5 is big number for Roddy White but if he can make one big play of 50-yards plus, you are probably golden. And if Atlanta is in catch-up mode and trailing most of the game (a very real possibility based on the lines), White should get a bunch of chances os of those you suggested, I'd prefer Roddy White 'over' 81.5 receiving yards. Q: Norm (Louisville) What do you think about the hornets -3 tonight...seems obvious to me R: briane I'd play it 'over' if I had to pick it. Knicks have seen the 'over' go a perfect 3-0 to date. Allright, folks. Best of luck on your bets tonight! I'm encouraging plays on the Phillies run line and the T-wolves catching eight at the winless Clips. Check out my NFL pick pack if you wish - thanks! --Brian Edwards |
|||
